工作的未来

The Future of Work

新技术的发展总会替代劳动力。第一次工业革命主要对非技术农业工作以及技术性的生产工作产生了冲击;第二次工业革命主要对可以由电力完成的非技术工作产生了影响;第三次工业革命减少了由拥有更高技能的人员所做的工作;而第四次工业革命,机器人和人工智能正在取代技术工人的工作。新技术会提高生产率,减少工作时间,增加人类闲暇,不可避免地造成就业结构的变化,大多数集中在技能分布中间位置的常规性工作被计算机所替代,促使工资不平等上升。但在无法实现自动化的产业部门中,一些新工作被创造出来,人们的工作时间并不必然会降到很低的水平。从推动经济增长的角度看,理应对新技术持欢迎态度。中国政府强调创新的驱动作用,提出建立制造业创新中心,引导和支持服务型制造和生产性服务业发展,但其研发投入仍显不足,生产性投资结构需要进一步优化。

New technology always replaces labor. The first industrial revolution destroyed unskilled agricultural jobs and skilled production jobs. Second industrial revolution destroyed mainly unskilled jobs that could be done by electric power. With the third industrial revolution,it destroys jobs done by more skilled people. In the fourth industrial revolution,robots and artificial intelligence are replacing skilled workers. New technology will raise productivity,reduce hours of work,but destroy jobs-especially routine mid-level jobs. Some of the gains from it are taken as increased leisure time. New technology inevitably leads to the change in employment structure and wage inequality. However,hours of work do not have to fall to very low levels. The reason is that new jobs will be created in sectors that cannot be automated. As a main driver of productivity growth,new technology should be welcomed. The Chinese government has put a lot of emphasis on new technology and innovation,and initiated a plan that includes establishing a manufacturing innovation center, as well as promotion of service-oriented manufacturing and manufacturingrelated service industries. Nevertheless,the structure of industrial investment and size of R&D investment still need to improve.