人工智能视域下的新时代中国人口发展战略——基于兰德里人口发展理论的分析

New Era in the Horizon of Artificial Intelligence China's Population Development Strategy——Analysis Based on Landry Population Development Theory

未来,人工智能将填补劳动人口下降带来的岗位空缺,并将成为劳动生产中新的劳动大军。对基于增加劳动人口但收效甚微的计生政策、人口总量依然庞大、劳动力素质普遍不高的人口发展现状进行战略规划极为重要。首先,概述兰德里人口发展理论并用其对新中国人口发展过程进行检验,结果发现该理论与新中国人口发展过程基本吻合:从1954年至1959年左右,人口出生率和死亡率都很高,但自然增长率却很低的"两高一低"特点符合兰德里人口发展第一阶段的理论;从1962年到1978年,人口发展进入到了兰德里人口发展理论的第二阶段:人口发展过程从"高高低"向"三低"转变;从1978年至今,人口发展进入兰德里人口发展理论第三阶段:人口发展维持在"三低"阶段。其次,阐述人工智能发展快速的原因、主要应用的领域,并结合兰德里人口发展理论,解释出为何人工智能能抵消"人口红利"消失带来的影响,同时指出人口总量过于庞大将影响人工智能的顺利发展、人口素质仍难以适应未来科技发展的要求等问题。最后,提出大力促进人工智能研发与应用、控制人口数量、提高人口素质等新时代中国人口发展战略规划建议。

In the future,artificial intelligence will fill the gaps in the labor force and will become a new labor force in labor production.It is extremely important to carry out strategic planning on the status of population development based on increasing labor force but having little effect on the family planning policy,the total population is still huge,and the quality of the labor force is generally low.Firstly,it summarizes Landry’s population development theory and uses it to test the development process of New China’s population.It turns out that the theory is basically consistent with the development process of New China’s population:From 1954 to 1959,the birth rate and mortality rate are high,but low natural growth rate is low 'two highs and one low'in line with the theory of the first phase of Landry’s population development;From 1962 to 1978,population development entered the second phase of Landry’s population development theory:The process has changed from'high to low'to'three lows';From 1978 to now,population development has entered the third stage of Landry’s population development theory:population development has remained at the'three lows'stage.Secondly,it expounds the reasons for the rapid development of artificial intelligence,the main application areas,and combines Landry’s population development theory to explain why artificial intelligence can offset the impact of the disappearance of'demographic dividend',and pointed out that the excessive population will affect the population.The smooth development of artificial intelligence and the quality of the population are still difficult to adapt to the requirements of future technological development.Finally,it puts forward proposals for the strategic planning of China’s population development in the new era,such as vigorously promoting the research and development and application of artificial intelligence,controlling the population and improving the quality of the population.