基于实物期权理论的城市轨道交通PPP项目价值评估研究

Study on the Value Assessment of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Based on Real Option Theory

我国城市轨道交通PPP项目以其巨量的资金规模与建造空间,吸引了各路资本蜂拥而上,轨道交通建设面临前所未有的机会和挑战。结合我国城市轨道交通PPP项目的特点,分析采用实物期权方法衡量城市轨道交通PPP项目价值的可行性,并构建相关定价模型,以具体案例验证模型的适用性,分析各参数对项目期权价值的影响情况。研究结果表明:采用实物期权方法能够更加准确地评估城市轨道交通PPP项目的价值;项目的特许期和波动率对项目实物期权价值影响较大,而项目的建设期、初始净现金流量和无风险利率对项目的实物期权价值影响较小。采用实物期权方法能够更加准确地评估城市轨道交通PPP项目的价值,帮助政府和社会资本更好地评估项目价值,做出更理性的投资决策。

The urban rail transit PPP project of China,with its huge amount of capital and construction space,attracts all kinds of capital,and the construction of China’s rail transit is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges.Based on the characteristics of urban rail transit PPP project in China,and analyzes the feasibility of value measurement of urban rail transit PPP project with real option method,and builds the relevant pricing model.The applicability of the model is verified by a case,and the influence of each parameter on the result is analyzed.The results show that the real option method can assess the value of project more accurately.The concession period and volatility of the project have a great impact on the value of the real option value of the project,while the construction period,initial net cash flow and risk-free interest rate have less impact on the real option value of the project.The real option method can more accurately evaluate the value of the urban rail transit PPP project,and can help the government and the social capital to better assess the project.