基于大数据平台的城市灾害社会恢复力指标初探——以“莫兰蒂”台风为例

A TENTATIVE STUDY OF SOCIAL RESILIENCE INDICATORS FOR URBAN DISASTER BASED ON BIG DATA PLATFORM:A CASE STUDY OF TYPHOON MERANTI

气候变化导致许多灾害的发生频率加快,破坏强度增加,提高城市的韧性是当前应对气候变化的重要途径。作为韧性的核心内容,社会恢复力对于灾后恢复评估及灾害的社会影响评估具有重要意义。本文以大数据为背景,关注公众心理恢复,探究反映社会恢复能力的指标及其与受灾情况之间的关系,对厦门市展开了实证分析。研究结果表明:厦门市的公众心理恢复时间最长,三明市最短;公众对莫兰蒂台风的关注度与其登陆的时间和地点有关,随台风在时空上的逼近而增高;表征关注度的公众搜索指数和公众心理恢复时间这两个反映社会恢复能力的指标都表现出与受灾情况良好的正相关性,可以作为社会恢复力的评价指标,但各自的影响机制不同,有待深入研究。

Climate change has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of many disasters.Improving urban resilience is an important way to deal with climate change.As a core component of resilience,social resilience is important for post-disaster recovery assessment and social impact assessment of disasters.This paper is based on big data,focusing on public psychological recovery and exploring indicators that reflect social resilience along with their relationship to the degree of disaster.The results show that the public psychological recovery time in Xiamen City is the longest,and Sanming City is the shortest;the public’s attention to Meranti is related to the time and place of landing,and it increases with the approach of typhoon in time and space;Both the search index and the public psychological recovery time,which reflect the social resilience,show a good positive correlation with the degree of disaster,but their impact mechanisms are different.