考虑工期-投资相关性的BOT项目特许期决策研究

Study of Concession Period Decision Considering Duration- Investment Correlation in BOT Project

针对BOT项目建设投资与工期的相关性,引入乔列斯基因子分解法,对原本相互独立的随机变量进行相关关系转换。基于项目投资者的角度,利用Monte Carlo模拟,建立工期-投资相关的BOT项目特许期决策模型,通过对工期、投资和特许期内NPV的模拟,确定较为合理的特许期区间。案例分析表明,该决策工具能够为BOT项目特许期的决策提供合理依据。

For the correlation of BOT project investment and construction period, the method of Cholesky decomposition has been used to convert independent stochastic variables into correlative ones. The Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to model the decision-making of concession period for a BOT projects with correlation of time and investment. Thus a rational range of concession period can be obtained through simulations of construction period, investment and the NPV within concession period. The case study shows that this decision-making tool can provide a reasonable support for decision-making of BOT projects.