考虑非关键线路影响的PERT网络计划完工概率分析

Completion probability of PERT network considering non-critical path

以工程项目管理中最常见的工期问题为研究对象,结合计划评审技术(PERT),讨论了项目在规定的时间内完工概率的问题,重点分析了非关键线路对项目完工概率的影响。结合具体案例,对不同要求工期下非关键线路是否能够决定工程项目完工概率进行了深入分析,得到非关键线路影响完工概率的一般规律,可作为求解项目完工概率问题的参考。

Taking the most common construction period problem in engineering project management as the research object,combined with the Program Evaluation and Review Technique( PERT),the problem of solving the project completion probability within the specified time is discussed,and the influence of non-critical lines on the project completion probability is analyzed. Combined with specific cases,the in-depth analysis of whether the non-critical lines can determine the completion probability of the project under different construction period,and the general rule of the non-critical line impacting completion probability can be used as a reference for solving the project completion probability problem.