直达货物运输按时送达可靠性的评估方法

A Method for Evaluating Reliability of Through Transport of Freight on Schedule

铁路直达货物运输主要有四种方式,每一种方式的货物送达时间主要受直达列车全程旅行时间的影响,β分布函数能较好地反映直达列车全程旅行时间的特征。通过对实际数据的统计分析,能得到直达列车全程实际旅行时间的分布函数,以及评估直达列车全程旅行时间的特征。由此,提出了货物送达合同期限遵守概率的评估方法;结合实例,对直达货物列车全程旅行时间进行了评估,给出一个预期的运行时间,运用分布函数计算出其可以实现的概率;同时,评估分析了直达货物运输按时送达可靠性。

There are mainly four modes of through transport of freight in railway, and the forwarding time of goods is mainly influenced by the whole traveling time of the block train. The characters of the traveling time are preferably described by a function. Based on statistic and analyses of actual data, a distribution function of the traveling time can be obtained and its characters can also be estimated. Hence, an evaluation method for calculating the probability of following the contract term is put forward. According to the practice, the complete traveling time of freight through train is evaluated, giving an expected traveling time, the probability of reliability is calculated by application of distribution function, and the reliability of the through transport of freight is also evaluated.