医疗服务需求估计与区域卫生规划

Estimation of demands for medical services and regional health planning

目的 探求科学合理的医疗服务需求估计方法 ,以便科学地制订区域卫生规划。方法 采用回顾性分析及计量经济模型 ,以某一特大城市的 1 9个县、区作为区域 ,进行医疗服务需求的预测。结果 根据多个社会、经济因素对医疗卫生服务的影响 ,得到门诊和住院服务需求模型 ,并举例说明当价格上涨 1 5 %及 2 0 %时 ,1 9个区域未来的医疗卫生服务需求。结论 计量经济模型可用作测量医疗卫生服务需求的工具 。

Objective To seek a rational method of estimating the demands for medical services so as to work out regional health planning in a scientific way. Methods A metropolis including 19 counties and districts was selected as a region and demands for medical services were forecasted via retrospective analysis and the econometric model. Results A model of the demands for outpatient and inpatient services was obtained based on the impact of many social and economic factors on medical health services, and illustrations were given to indicate the demands for medical health services in the 19 counties and districts in future when prices should rise by 15% and 20%. Conclusion The econometric model can be used as a tool for estimating the demands for medical health services, and yet improvements need to be made.