重新认识入世对中国农业的影响

Reassess the Impact of China’s Entry into WTO on Its Agriculture

入世给中国农业带来的变化是过去我国农业生产和贸易发展结构变动趋势的继续 ;入世在给我国许多土地密集型的农产品带来一些负面冲击的同时 ,也为劳动力相对密集型的我国许多农产品生产带来发展的机遇 ;入世可能会进一步促进地区收入分配不均的现象。由于中国农产品市场整合程度相当高 ,所以不管在港口或沿海地区市场受入世的正面或负面冲击时 ,其影响将会波及全国各地 ,这也表明入世对有关税配额管理的农产品的影响将是“广而不深”。入世后政府支持农业发展的措施会受到一些限制 ,但我国政府在增加农业投入 (包括绿箱和黄箱政策 )、提高我国农产品的国际竞争力上还有很大的政策支持空间 ,政府应在农业投入上做更加不懈的努力、同时更加关注未来农村贫困人口这一弱势群体的利益。

Changes due to the WTO implementation are consistent with the sequences of China’s reform and development paces; while major land-intensive crops will be negatively affected, there are many labor-intensive commodities in which China has considerable comparative advantage such they will benefit from the trade liberalization. This paper also found that many of China’s markets are fairly well integrated into the rest of the economy, which implies that the shocks in the border or the benefits(suffering)due to China’s WTO accession will be shared(borne)by large inland farmers. For commodities with tariff-rate-quota management, the limit impact will be distributed widely across country. There is a great room(both Green Box and Amber’s Box)for China to increase its investment in agriculture and the competitive of its products in the world market. Special attention should also be paid to the welfare of those susceptible groups.