大连市水资源可持续利用的模糊模式识别及对策研究

FUZZY PATTERN RECOGNITION AND COUNTERMEASURE ON SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION OF WATER RESOURCE IN DALIAN CITY

大连是中国北方沿海重要的中心城市和国际风景旅游城市 ,也是全国重要的缺水城市之一。水资源的可持续利用是大连市社会经济环境可持续发展的关键问题。目前关于水资源可持续利用的前沿研究大都还停留在概念的提供和定性分析上 ,缺乏量化的理论和方法。模糊模式识别模型通过量化的手段阐明可持续利用的具体方法和途径 ,使水资源可持续利用具有可衡量性和可操作性。该文首次采用此模型对大连市水资源进行可持续利用分析 ,结果表明大连全市及大连市区近、中、远期水资源可持续利用级别特征值都有逐年减少 ,尤其大连市区 2 0 1 0年水资源开发已逐渐接近区域水资源承载力 ,水资源开发潜力不大 ,这一结论恰与实际相符 ,进一步证明了此方法的可行性。最后 ,提出了大连市水资源可持续利用的对策。

Being an important center and international tourism city, Dalian is one of the typical cities in the north inshore of China, whose water resource is in serous scarcity. Therefore, sustainable utilization of water resource is the key of urban sustainable development. However, existing researches on sustainable utilization of water resource just rest on concepts and qualitative analysis, theories and methods of quantitative researches are few. Fuzzy pattern recognition, through which method and approach of sustainable utilization of water resource are illuminated, makes the sustainable utilization of water resource quantitative and maneuverable. The multi stage fuzzy pattern recognition model,for the first time, is introduced into the analysis of water resource utilization of Dalian. The result shows that the grade characteristic value of sustainable utilization of water resource gradually decreases in the short, middle and long term. It also shows that the bearing capacity of water resource development will be reached in 2010 and the potentialities of water resource to be exploited are very few. As it is in accord with facts in Dalian, the method is proved maneuverable. Accordingly, countermeasures for sustainable utilization of water resource in Dalian are discussed in last part of the paper.