内蒙古自治区奈曼旗土地利用变化预测研究

MODELING LAND USE CHANGE IN NAIMAN COUNTY OF INNER MONGOLIA

该文以奈曼旗 1 995年～ 1 999年的土地利用数据为基础 ,结合人口和国内生产总值增长的驱动作用 ,采用GKSIM模型对奈曼旗的土地利用变化趋势进行模拟分析。模拟结果显示 ,奈曼旗的林地面积将从1 995年的 1 71 1 71hm2 增加到 2 0 1 5年的 1 973 63hm2 ;以耕地和园地为主的农业用地面积基本稳定在 1 80 0 0hm2的水平 ;草地面积在近几年的下降后基本保持稳定 ,约为 980 0 0hm2 ;非农业用地持续增加 ,到 2 0 1 5年达到3 1 0 0 0hm2 。其它用地面积从 1 995年的 3 2 675 9hm2 下降到 3 0 2 65 5hm2 。土地利用变化的基本趋势预示着 ,未来 1 5a,奈曼旗的生态环境将在总体保持稳定的基础上有所改善。

Based on land use data from 1995 to 1999, and combined with driving forces of population growth and economic development, this paper applies GKSIM model to simulate land use changes in Naiman county of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The results show that forest land in Naiman will increase from 171 171 hm 2 in 1995 to 197 363 hm 2 in 2015. Agricultural land will stabilize at the level of 18 000 hm 2. With a slight decline in recent years, grassland will keep in about 98 000 hm 2 . Area of non agricultural land will continuously increase to 31 000 hm 2 in 2015. Area of other land will drop from 326 759 hm 2 in 1995 to 302 655 hm 2 in 2015. The trend of land use change indicates ecological and environmental situation in Naiman county will become stable or even be improved to some extent in the next 15 years.