中国证券业及上市公司对GDP贡献的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Contributions of China's securities industry and listed companies to GDP

本文创造性地探索出中国证券业增加值和上市公司增加值的测算方法 ,并运用通过各种途径所获得的权威数据 ,分别估算了证券业和上市公司中的募集资金对GDP的全部直接与间接贡献。估算结果表明 :(1 )从对当年GDP的贡献来看 ,将全部直接与间接贡献加总在一起看 ,股票市场对全国GDP的生产起到了较大的作用。 (2 )证券业与上市公司募集资金对当年GDP的静态直接贡献并不算太突出。 (3 )从动态发展的角度来看 ,股票市场在国民经济中的地位快速提高 ,对促进经济增长起到了较大作用。

This paper creatively works out the methods to calculate the value added of China's securities industry and listed companies,and makes an estimate on the direct and indirect contributions by the securities industry and by the raised money of listed companies. This paper considers that the value added of the securities industry and listed companies equals the direct contribution, and the indirect contribution is made up of two parts:one is the value added of industrial association effect by buying semi-finished products, and the other is value added of multiplier effect by outcome from production material investment. The estimation result suggests: (1) As for the yearly GDP contribution, the stock market has made great contribution to the GDP. (2) The yearly static direct contributions to GDP by the securities industry and by the raised money of listed companies are not significant. (3) If we take a dynamic and developing view, the stock market is having more and more weight in national economy and has contributed a significant part to economic. development.