状态和参数估计的两段互耦自适应滤波在水文预报中的应用

Application of status/parameter estimation adaptive Kalman filtering technique to river peak discharge forecast

用参数和状态估计的两段互耦自适应 Kalman滤波预报方法 ,对时间序列模型进行最优和次优预报 ,用于解决河流年最大洪峰流量时变参数系统的自适应预报问题。通过松花江哈尔滨水文站年最大洪峰流量的实例计算表明 。

In this paper,the method of algorithms of adaptive Kalman filering optimal and suboptimal prediction to time series model is applied to solving adaptive forecasting problem for river annual maximum peak discharge time varials systems.An calculation example annual maximum peak discharge at the Songhua River Harbin Hydrology Station is given to show the good forecasting results and applicability. [