金华旱涝趋势统计分析

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT-FLOOD TREND IN JINHUA

根据对旱涝自身变化及其与太阳黑子活动、厄尔尼诺事件关系的分析,得出了金华旱涝趋势的几点认识:(1)在未来的十几年之内,金华站将从涝年占优势的阶段转入旱年占优势的阶段;(2)在太阳黑子活动22年的磁周期转变年前后,金华站3年平均年降水量明显偏多;(3)在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年,金华站年降水量偏多;(4)厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日,那么次年金华站年降水量偏多;(5)厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大,对金华站年降水量的影响也越大;(6)在太阳黑子活动22年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年,金华站年降水量明显偏多。这些认识对长期及超长期的旱涝趋势预测具有重要的现实意义。

According to the analysis of drought-flood change itself and sunspot activity, El Nino event, some knowledge of drought-flood trend in Jinhua is given as follows: (1) Dominant flood period changed into dominant drought period at Jinhua Stand in last ten years and probably in the future; (2) There was much more precipitation of average values of three years at Jinhua Stand around years of magnetic cycle transformation of 22 years of sunspot activity; (3) There was more annual precipitation at Jinhua Stand in the same year of El Nino event of spring season type and the next year of El Nino event of summer season type; (4) If the end El Nino event was over May 1, there was more annual precipitation at Jinhua Stand in the next year; (5) The greater the intensity of El Nino event is, the greater the effect on year precipitation at Jinhua Stand is; (6) There was much more annual precipitation at Jinhua Stand in the next year of El Nino event around years of magnetic cycle transformation of 22 years of sunspot activity. Drought-flood trend forecast of long-term or over long-term is therefore of significant importance.