近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量波动影响因素分析

The Influence Factors on the Variation of Grain Yield in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in Recent 50 Years

本文在近50年内蒙古自治区粮食产量和气象数据的基础上,对内蒙古地区粮食单产波动及其影响因素作了分析,结果表明:全区粮食产量按平均每年3.58％的速率递增。天气条件对产量的影响变化剧烈且连续性差;技术因素影响呈平稳上升趋势;其他因素影响略显波型波动。三种因素对产量影响的平均年际变化幅度分别为每公顷±749.8,±60.5和±187.7kg。在对气象产量作预报时不宜采用常用的趋势产量和其他因素产量的时间外延预报方法作预报,而应视当地具体的气候因子特征采用回归分析等方法作预报。本文选取了内蒙古中、东部两个代表不同气候条件的地区进行了气象产量模拟。

On the basis of the grain yield data of the Agriculture Department of Inner Mongolia, the factors that influenced the inter - annual variations of the grain yield in recent 50 years have been analyses. The results indicated that the total grain yield of Inner Mongolia increased gradually at an average rate of 3. 58% per year. The factors affecting on the grain yield per unit (Y) were divided into three parts. The first one was the weather conditions (Yw) that varied sharply and didn't continuous from year to year. The second was the technology (Yt) that changed smoothly and had a gradual increasing tendency, and the last one was other factors (Yo) that oscillated with three waves. The inter-annual average varying range of the three factors were ±749. 8, ±60. 5 and ±187. 7 kg per hm2 vespectively. For Yw forecasting we cannot use the time extension method like the way of Yt or Yo forecasting, because it varied discontinuously. In this paper we used the data from two counties Tuzuoqi and Aohanqi as represent stations for Yw predicting by using the regression relatives among the local main weather elements. The weather condition was quite different and its effects on the Y are complex in different regions. So that, we should accurately know the features of local weather conditions and gave them a specific analysis.