中国经济波动的新轨迹

Analysis on the New Fluctuation Mode of China Economy Development

本文对 1 998— 2 0 0 2年中国经济运行所出现的建国以来从未有过的既稳定又较快增长的新轨迹进行了考察 ,尝试归纳了这五年实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策为社会主义市场经济下宏观调控的政策工具库所增添的新内容 ,并通过国际比较 ,提出在我国未来的经济增长中能否走出一条在 8%— 1 0 %的区间平稳运行的新轨迹 ,以及相应地要牢记我国历史上多次经济过热的教训。

This paper discusses the new China economy devleopment mode in 1998—2002.In this period,China economy have grown stably but with faster speed, which never occurred since 1949.we sum up the active financial policy and moderate monetary policy which government implemented in this five years and want to add new content of the policy tool base for macro-economy adjustment in China's socialism market economy,after that,we have some international comparison and give our advice:China should create a new way in which China economy can grow stably in the 8%—10% interval in the future and we also should remember several overheated lessons in the history.