建设项目动态风险分析方法研究

STUDY ON DYNAMIC RISK ANALYSIS MET HOD IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

在建设项目管理中风险分析的重要性是不言而喻的,国内外许多的专家学者对此都作过深入的研究,并提出很多风险分析方法。然而,由于建设项目本身的复杂性、外界环境的多变性以及建设周期长等特点,致使各风险因素的变化随时间波动较大,大部分的风险分析方法虽对这一问题有所涉及,但最终解决方法仍不十分理想。本文在前人研究成果的基础上,以研究风险因素变化的时间性入手,从建设项目分阶段的角度提出一种风险的动态分析方法。此方法包括动态风险因素的识别和监控,并以风险期望损失发生后的最终体现——项目收益的减少为风险研究对象。

In construction project management, the importance of risk analysis is obvious. There are many experts and researchers at home and abroad who have studied it deeply, and they present a lot of risk analysis methods. However, due to the complication of project - self, the diversity of external environment, and the long period of construction, the change of risk factors fluctuates greatly with the time. Also, most methods relate to this aspect, but not deeply. This paper emphasizes the timeliness of risk factor changes, and presents a new method of risk dynamic analysis from the angle of the stage of construction project. This method includes the risk factors of dynamic identification and control, and studies the reduction of projected profits as influenced by risk expected losses.