摘要
本文采用横向研究方法,利用34个国家的截面数据建立了一个关于建筑业产业成长发展轨迹的回归模型。回归结果发现国内生产总值中建筑业增加值的比重与人均国内生产总值之间呈现三次曲线关系。该横向研究结论初步说明了建筑业发展的自身规律(三个阶段)和与不同经济发展阶段的关系,也为建筑业产业预测、产业评价和产业规划等提供了一个新的途径和依据。
Using a cross-sectional method, this paper establishes a regression model of the growth path of the construction industry according to the data of 34 countries. From the regression model a cubic curve is found to describe the relationships among the proportion of value-added of construction to the gross domestic product and the per capita gross domestic product. The cross-sectional analysis explains the inner rules of the growth of the construction industry and the primary relationship between it and different economic development phases. Also, it provides a new approach and evidence for industry forecasting, appraising, and planning.
出处
《土木工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第3期105-109,共5页
China Civil Engineering Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"中国建筑业成长发展轨迹与经济增长方式研究"(#70173037)的阶段性成果
关键词
建筑业
横向研究方法
发展轨迹
回归模型
construction industry, cross-sectional method, growth path, regression model