开局反弹结局稳 入世效应看来年——2002年12月份宏观经济形势分析

China's Economic Development Continues to Gather Momentum——An analysis of China's macro-economic situation in December 2002

12月份,中国的经济运行继续保持强劲而稳定的增长态势,工业生产继续攀升,出口再增三成,预计全年GDP增长8%,为入世后的第一年画了一个圆满的句号。一方面,中国经济有着巨大的增长潜力,另一方面又潜藏着一系列矛盾和风险,问题集中在就业和金融方面。与实体经济特别是一些制造业的情况相比,银行金融和资本市场日子不大好过,投资者经历了伤心的一年,证券公司陷入全行业亏损,内外经济平衡问题也日显突出,而就业也依赖于资本扩张,金融改革将成为新一年的重头戏。

China's economic development continued to gather momentum in December2002. The country's exports grew by at least 30% over the same month of 2001.For the entire year of 2002, the growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP)exceeded 8%.Behind so rapid an economic development, however, are risks and a rangeof economic problems, most notably deflation and problems with employment.