应用马尔可夫链法预测晚稻稻飞虱发生程度

Forecast of occurrence degree of rice planthoppers in late rice field by Markov chains transition matrix

根据化州市 1 979～ 1 999年 2 1年晚稻稻飞虱主害代发生程度的时间序列资料 ,应用马尔可夫链预测法对该市 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年稻飞虱发生程度进行了预测 ,结果与大田实际发生情况完全一致。对1 985～ 1 999年的历史资料进行回检 ,符合率为 96.7%,可对晚稻稻飞虱的发生程度进行超长期预测。

Markov chains transition matrix was used to forecast degrees of occurrence of rice planthoppers in 2000 and 2001 in Huazhou City, on the basis of time serial data of occurrence degree of the pests′ main damage generation in late rice fields from 1979 to 1999. The forecast result was in accordance with real occurrence degree. Rate of coincidence was 96.7% while testing this forecast occurrence degree of rice planthoppers in late rice fields in long term.