中国国债规模:现状、由来与出路

The Scale of Public Debt in China

衡量当前中国国债规模的大与小 ,应当分别使用存量和流量两类不同的指标体系。由零起步的中国国债之所以在短短的 2 3年间演化到今天这样的规模 ,是体制改革、税收“缺位”、非规范性政府收入的冲击、借新债还旧债、财政支出膨胀和实行扩张性财政政策等若干因素复合作用的结果。在当前的中国国情背景下防范可能出现的国债风险 ,只能在多方面因素的相互制约中 。

The author recommends that two sets of criteria should be applied in order to measure the scale of Chinas current public debt. They are the stock index and the flow index.The author holds that the rapid amplification of Chinas public debt in 23 years can be accounted for by collaborative efforts of many aspects, including the institutional reform, the default of tax, the impact of non standardi zed government revenues, borrowing new debts to repay old ones, the expansion of fiscal expenditure and exerting expansionary fiscal policy and so on. At present, the author concludes, precautions should be taken to prevent possible risks of public debts. Lowering the relatively high debt dependence degree by keeping the various aspects in an interlocking state can be an appropriate approach to this problem.