一个中国宏观经济预测模型及算法

A Chinese macro-economic forecast model and algorithm

将动态投入产出技术与最优化方法相结合,针对中国经济的现状,建立了一个包括三个目标和四类约束的宏观经济预测模型.为便于求解,对它进行线性变换,得到一个规模变小的新模型.给出了一个实际算例,结果表明所建立的模型比较符合实际.

Combining dynamic inputoutput analyses with methods of optimization, a macroeconomic forecast model including 3 objects and 4 kinds of constraints is established according to Chinese current economic conditions. To solve it simply, a new model is gained by linear transformation in the paper, which is smaller in scale than the former. Finally the results of an example calculation indicate that the model is consistent with the actual situation.