2002年铝市场回顾与2003年展望

Review of aluminum market in 2002 and its prospects for 2003

文章回顾了 2 0 0 2年的铝市场 ,2 0 0 2年前三个季度国内外铝价呈区间振荡走势 ,第四季度国内期货与现货价格开始急速走高。总体上讲 ,与上年比较 ,铝的价格重心仍在下移。市场供应快速增长 ,消费从第二季度开始温和回升 ,全年全球市场过剩量超过 90万t,但国内市场则短缺近 6万t,预计 2 0 0 3年国内外市场均将过剩。

In this paper,aluminum market at home and abroad in 2002 are reviewed in retrospect to the effect that the aluminum prices in the first to third quarters in 2002 tended to oscillation within a certain scope,and then in the fourth quarter both the domestic spot and futures prices of aluminum started to tend upward rapidly,but on the whole the aluminum price was still moving downward as compared with that in 2001.The market supply increased also rapidly and the consumptions started to increase mildly in the second quarter with the result that an excess of 900 thousand t in global aluminum market in 2002,but a lack of 60 thousand t in domestic market in that same year.It is predicted that there would be an excess quantity of aluminum in market either at home or abroad in 2003.