汇率制度选择:理论争论、发展趋势及其经济绩效比较

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Theory Debates, Current Trends and Economic Performance

本文首先回顾了汇率制度选择的理论争论,指出在有关汇率制度的选择问题上,理论界是没有一致意见的;接着文章又考察了汇率制度的分类方法及其演进,发现汇率制度现有的发展趋势似乎可以为每一种有关汇率制度选择的长期趋势的观点提供支持;最后文章还就不同汇率制度对经济绩效的影响进行了比较分析,结果也表明没有一种汇率制度是最优的。因此文章的结论是:“没有单一的一种汇率制度可以在所有时候适用于所有的国家”。

This paper first reviews the theory debates on the choice of exchange rate regime and indicates that there is no consensus on the subject. Section two of this paper then studies the definitions and current trends in exchange rate regimes and finds that the latest year' s evolution of exchange rate regimes seems to provide partial support to almost any view about the long-run trends on the choice of regimes. At last, the paper comparatively analyzes the impact of exchange rate regimes on the economic performance and the result is also that no regime is perfect. So the paper' s conclusion is that: 'single currency regime is right for all countries or at all time'.