概率性序列及其运算理论

Probabilistic sequences and operation theory

在电力系统中,一般使用离散的分布函数来表示发电机组在各种容量情况下的可用率。针对电力系统的这一实际需求,该文在一般序列运算的基础上,定义了一种特殊序列——概率性序列,并进一步详细探讨了其运算性质。从概率论的角度,定义了序列的期望值,并且详细给出了原始序列以及派生序列的期望值之间的运算关系。状态空间分析是该文的一个重要进展,经过对概率性序列的4种序列运算的状态空间分析,发现了其运算所对应的子空间具有明确的物理意义,这一结论对整个序列理论在电力系统中的应用具有重要价值。概率性序列的上述研究成果,成为后续的随机生产模拟研究的理论基础。

In power systems, generator capacity availability is always analyzed as a multistate distribution function, which means that the generator operates at different states with each state having a certain probability. The probability is a stochastic variable and the sum of all probabilities is 1. A special type of discrete sequence for power system analysis, referred to as probabilistic sequence, was developed with the expected value of the sequence given by its first moment. The expected values of derived sequences were then related to the values of initial sequences. Analysis on the four substate spaces of each operation was used to give physical meaning to the discrete sequence operations between two sequences. The probabilistic sequence method was then used to build an algorithm for probabilistic production cost simulation of power systems.