河北省东亚飞蝗发生动态及未来灾变趋势分析

Analysis of population dynamics and trends of future outbreaks of the Oriental migratory locust in Hebei

80年代以来 ,尤其进入 90年代 ,由于受异常气候、农业生态及人为因素的影响 ,河北省东亚飞蝗Locustamigratoriamanilensis (Meyen)出现了暴发频次增加、发生期提前、秋蝗发生加重、潜在和隐伏蝗区突发等特点。作者分析了 5 0年来影响河北省东亚飞蝗发生动态的 5种因素 :气象因素、生态因素、湖库水位因素、河泛流量因素、人为因素等。并对河北省东亚飞蝗未来灾变趋势做了展望。

Since the 1980's and especially the 1990's, outbreaks of the Oriental migratory locust in Hebei Province have increased in frequency, with outbreaks occurring earlier in the season. These changes are probably due to the influence of abnormal climate, agricultural ecology and human factors. In order to determine the causes of outbreaks five factors that influence population dynamics of the Oriental migratory locust in Hebei Province; weather, agricultural ecology, lake levels, river levels and human impacts, were analysed. Likely future trends of outbreaks of Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen) in Hebei Province are predicted.