新疆降水概率预报技术研究

Research on the Technology of Precip itation Probability Forecast in Xinjiang

采用相似预报方法以相似离度为相似判据,使用T213资料,从1980～1999年共20年的NCAR再分析格点数据中,经四次相似过滤,选取相似样本,建立预报方程,制作全疆59个测站0～12、12～24h小量、中量以上降水概率预报,预报概率值大小分为12级0、5、10、20、30、40、50、60、70、80、90、100%。

The analog forecast used the analog c riterion of analog distance.Underg one the analog filter,chosen analog samples from NCAR data from 1980to 1999set up prediction equations.Precipitati on probability forecast of 59statio ns are made according to the light and moderate a mount during 0to 12hr,12to 24hr.The values of probability forecast are d ivided into12level:0,0.05,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9and 1.