“三七”高炮防雹对昭苏县气象站雹日数影响的统计分析

Mathematical Statistics Analysis o f Hail Suppression Effect using"37"Gun in Zhaosu

根据昭苏县气象站1956～1973年(防雹前)和1974～1998年(防雹后)6～8月平均雹日数的变化,就“37”高炮防雹对下游地区雹日数的影响进行了统计分析。经计算,防雹后25年的平均雹日数比防雹前减少了3.8d,为了证明这一结果是人为影响还是自然变化,进行了序列检验和回归分析,表明,人工防雹使防区内雹日数显著减少,显著性水平分别达到0.001和0.01。

Based on the variation of the average hail days at Zhaosu station June to August,during 1956～1973before hail s up-pression and 1974～1998after hail su ppression,the statistics analysis about the affection of the'37'gun on hail days of lower reaches' has been made.The result showed that the average hail days decreased 3.8d ays during the 25years after the hail sup-pression.In order to differentiate between the weather modification an d the natural change,the sequence ch ecking and the re-gression analysis have been made.The result showed that the decreased hail days after the hail suppression is notable.The signifi-cance level reaches 0.001and 0.01.