大雾消散时间的客观化预报

The Objective Forecast of the Fog Dissipation

分析石家庄生成大雾的气象条件以及不利于消散的大气层结和气象要素特征 ,选取与大雾消散有关的预报因子 ,由实况资料建立大雾消散时间的线性回归预报方程 ,并将数值预报结果与实况进行插值订正 ,做大雾消散时间的客观化预报 ;分析了自动气象站的气温资料与大雾消散时间的关系 ,用自动站资料对大雾消散时间进行订正预报。

The meteorological condition of the fog occurring and the atmospheric stratification structure and meteorological elements of the fog keeping is analyzed. Based on the data of the observation, The predictors of the fog dissipation time are selected, the liner regression equation is established to predict the dissipation of the fog. The relation between the data of the numerical products and the real values is analyzed. Then, the fog dissipation is predicted by the correction data of the numerical products. In addition, the relation of the temperature of the auto-observation station and the fog dissipation time is analyzed, the short time forecast of the fog dissipation is carried out. The effective forecast of fog dissipation time provides good service for highway traffic.