震害经济损失的全概率预测

Total probability forecasting method for economic loss of seismic damage

如何分析一个地区在未来地震中的经济损失水平,对于在现阶段采取相应的防震减灾对策有很大的决策参考意义。过去的震害损失预测分析,一般在考虑地震危险性时是有概率水平的,可是在分析震害及经济损失时,没有充分考虑这些因素的概率特征。本文从全概率的公式为基础,建立了区域震害经济损失预测的概率分析模型,综合考虑了地震、场地、结构和当地经济发展水平的影响。进而在对这个模型作一些简化以后,提出了以结构物破坏等级为基础的震害经济损失分析预测方法。此外,本文在如何考虑场地液化等方面也作了分析探讨。

The regional economic loss in the future earthquakes is an important reference in choosing the present policies and measurements of earthquakeprotecting and disasterreducing.Formerly seismic economic loss forecasting methods, which are probabilistic in considering the seismic risk, are not fully considered the probabilistic characteristic in analyzing both the structure damage and the economic loss. Based on the total probabilistic formula, a probabilistic forecasting model for the regional seismic economic loss is presented.In this model, the earthquake, site, structure and local economic level are included. When it is simplified, a seismic economic loss forecasting method based on structure damage level is concluded. Furthermore, site liquefaction is considered in the simplified model.