登革热、疟疾和丝虫病蚊媒的传播动力学比较及其与防治效应的研究

A study on comparison of transmission dynamics among three mosquito born diseases,dengue fever,malaria and fialriasis and its relation with control effect

目的 为进一步了解登革热、疟疾和丝虫病三种蚊传疾病在传播动力学上的差异及其与防治效应的关系。方法 通过数学模型 ,对三种疾病的传播动力学进行定量分析和比较。结果 登革热的传播速率 (即媒介能量 )和流行速率最高 ,但传播潜能 (即基本繁殖率 )较低 ,维持最低传播所需的叮人率 (即临界叮人率 )也较高 ,提示通过降低蚊群数量即有可能较容易地达到控制传播的目的 ;疟疾的传播和流行速率略低于登革热 ,但传播潜能比登革热高得多 ,临界叮人率也很低 ,表明疟疾不但容易引发地方性流行和暴发性流行 ,而且较难以控制和消灭 ,必须采取严密的综合性防治措施 ;丝虫病的传播速率和流行速率非常慢 ,传播潜能也非常低 ,提示有可能通过单一的控制传染源措施 ,容易地控制甚至阻断其传播。结论 三种蚊传疾病在传播动力学上存在明显的差异 。

Objective To further understend the difference of transmission dynamics among three mosquito born diseases,dengue fever,malaria and filariasis and is relation with control effect. Methods By the mathematic model the quantitative dynamics analysis and comparison among the three diseases were carried out. Results The transmission velocity(i.e.vectorial capacity,VC)and epidemic velocity(EV)of dengue fever is the most high-speed but its transmission potential(i.e.basic reproduction rate,BRR)is lower and the man-biting rate needed for maintain the lowest transmission is higher which suggested that it is easier to control its transmission by reducing the mosquito population;The transmission and epidemic velocity of malaria is slight lower than that of dengue fever,but its transmission potential is much high than that of dengue fever,and its critical man-biting rate is also very low which indicated that it is not only easy to cause the endemicity also the epidemicity,but also hard to control its transmission and it is necessary to take integrated control measured;The transmission and epidemic velocity of filariasis is very low and its transmission potential is also very low so it is possible to control even interrupt its transmission only by single mesures aiming the infection source. Conclusion There are evident differences in transmission dynamics among the three mosquito born diseases which is the fundumental reason of frming different epidemic characterestic and of leading to variant control effects among the three diseases.