中国煤炭行业潜在产出缺口估计与检验

Estimation and validation of potential output gap in China's coal industry

针对中国煤炭产能过剩的现状,本文采用生产函数法对1990年以来我国煤炭潜在产出缺口进行了估计与检验。研究发现:(1)规模收益递增是导致中国煤炭产业产能扩张的重要原因,供过于求背景下的煤炭产能减控政策将直接影响煤炭经济效益,短期内煤炭企业有可能采取以量补价的方式扩大生产;(2)受煤炭供需关系及其产业政策的影响,考察期内中国煤炭产出缺口及其产能利用率变化较大,煤炭产能存在过剩风险,产能建设投资过度与市场需求不足是其主要原因;(3)煤炭产出缺口变化并不能影响经济周期性波动,两者之间存在单向的Granger关系,经济波动的前期变化能够导致煤炭产出缺口的变化,即宏观经济政策对煤炭产能有滞后性的影响。

With the production function method,the paper estimated the potential coal output gaps since 1990.The results show that(1)Increasing returns to scale is an important cause of China coal industry production capacity expansion.Under the background of coal oversupply,the capacity reducing policies will directly affect the economic efficiency,and the coal enterprises in the short term is likely to take the amount of the premium way to expand production.(2)Influenced by the coal supply and demand,China's coal output gap and capacity utilization vary widely during the review period.Excessive investment in capacity building and lacks of market demand lead to an excess coal production capacity risk.(3)There exists one-way Granger relationship between economic fluctuation and coal production capacity gap.The previous change of economic fluctuation can result in the change of coal production capacity gap, while the change of coal production capacity gap cannot affect economic periodic fluctuation.Therefore,macroeconomic policies have delayed impacts on coal production capacity.