汇率波动对中国进口价格弹性的影响——基于贸易开放和产业升级的视角

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and China’s Import Price Elasticity:In Perspectives of Trade Liberalization and Industry Upgrading

汇率是调节国际贸易收支的重要工具,而汇率的不完全传递将削弱汇率的调节作用,贸易壁垒造成了国家之间价格差异长期存在,妨碍了汇率的完全传递。本文将1999—2012年中国HS-6位产品进口价格、关税、非关税壁垒数据同人民币汇率和行业生产率匹配后,沿用Amiti等(2014)的实证模型,定量分析贸易壁垒对汇率传递率的冲击。我们发现非关税壁垒的提高导致了汇率传递程度的增加,关税和行业生产率的提高均显著抑制了中国汇率传递程度。拓展检验发现人民币汇率传递存在方向不对称性,即在人民币贬值时期,非关税壁垒的增加反而抑制了汇率传递。最后,本文依据提出贸易政策与外汇政策的协同作用和机制,为经济新常态下政府制定相关金融政策、贸易政策及贸易企业决策提出了意见与建议。

The exchange rate is an important factor for regulating the balance of international trade. However, the incomplete exchange rate passthrough will weaken the regulatory effect of exchange rates. The trade barriers will cause long-term differences in product prices among countries and further hinder complete exchange rates pass-through. We use the empirical model of Amiti et al.( 2014) to analyze the trade barriers effect for the degree of exchange rate pass-through with Chinese harmonization system( HS) six digits product level trade data,by matching the import prices,tariffs,total factor productivity( TFP),and non-tariff barriers with the RMB exchange rate from 1999 to 2012. We find that the increase in non-tariff barriers leads to an increase in the degree of exchange rate pass-through. In contrast,the increase in tariffs and industry productivity significantly reduces the degree of exchange rate pass-through. In the extension test, we find the exchange rate passthrough is asymmetric between the period of appreciation and devaluation.During the period of RMB devaluation,the increase in non-tariff barriers reduces the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Finally,we propose the synergies between trade policies and foreign exchange policies,which are important for the government to formulate relevant financial policies,trade policies,and for trade-related companies to make decision under the 'new normal'.