“二重周期”导致全球金融系统性风险上升

The “Dual Cycle” Drives up the Systemic Risk of the Global Financial System

本文对"全球再平衡周期"和"全球负利率周期"及其对全球金融格局的长期影响进行了分析,认为"二重周期"使全球资产波动加剧,金融系统性风险上升将成为不可避免的趋势,指出若当前全球危机的救助形式不发生根本性改变,则不能排除未来再次发生全球系统性金融危机的可能性。

This paper analyzes the'global rebalancing cycle'and the'global negative interest rate cycle'and their long-term impact on the global financial landscape and argues that the'dual cycle'worsens the global asset fluctuation and the growing financial systemic risk will be inevitable.It concludes that if no fundamental change occurs to the current crisis relief system in the world,we won't be able to rule out the possibility of another global systematic financial crisis in the future.