特朗普时代:“地缘政治”与“贸易保护”——收缩策略的机遇与挑战

The Trump Era:“Geopolitics”and “Trade Protectionism”——Challenges and Opportunities from Contraction Policies

美国总统大选特朗普胜选,对全球地缘政治、经济和中美关系新格局将产生重大影响。第一,特朗普的收缩策略可能会给中国在亚太地区的发展带来一些空间。虽然美国绝不可能放弃在亚太地区的利益和对其的控制,但整体来说,特朗普的收缩策略对中国利大于弊,给"一带一路"建设带来了发展空间。第二,可以预见美俄两国将有可能加强在经济和政治方面的战略合作,美俄如果联手钳制中国,那么将会给中国带来巨大的地缘政治挑战。第三,基于特朗普上任后可能推出的大规模财政刺激、减税、扩大基建投资和放松金融监管等举措,建议引导中国金融机构特别是开发性金融机构和基础设施建设企业构建有效的中美经贸合作关系。

Mr.Trump's victory in the US presidential election will have great effects on the global geopolitics,economy and the China-US relationship.First,his contraction policy may give some room for China's development in the Asian-Pacific Region,but the US will by no means forgo its benefits in and control over Asia.Such policies have more merits than its demerits to China,and give room for China to implement the One Belt One Road Initiative.Second,it is expected that the US and Russia will reinforce strategic economic and political cooperation.If the two powers join hands to constrain china,the latter will be confronted with severe geopolitical challenges.Third,given the possibility that Mr.Trump will take measures like massive fiscal stimulus,tax reduction,more investment in infrastructure and relaxed financial regulation after he officially assumes the office,it is suggested that Chinese financial institutions,specially development financing institutions and companies involved in infrastructure construction,be guided to establish effective China-US economic and trade cooperation.