长期利率走势的国别差异与国际协动

National Differences and International Co-movements of Long-term Interest Rates

本文对发达经济体利率下行趋势的成因进行了比较,对利率走势的国际协动现象进行了经验分析,归纳了全球利率长期下行的共性因素与出现趋势反弹的条件。总体而言,普遍低水平利率的长期成因主要是结构性阻滞引发的供给放缓与通胀乏力,既包括各国内部经济的结构性长期停滞,也包括国际经济金融治理体系的结构僵化。短期成因则主要涉及宏观政策取向和避险需求变化,主要产生于周期波动乏力、冲击日渐频繁、前景预期不明三个方面。未来,利率出现"对称性"反弹的概率不高,原因如下:一是结构性因素变化导致均衡利率下移,利率可能只收敛于一个更低的新波动中枢;二是各国利率回升的前提条件都比较严格;三是全球经济联系日趋紧密,经济体之间会相互拖累。

This paper analyzes the cause of the downward trend of the USA,Euro zone and other developed economies' long-term interest rates.Downward pressure on the interest rates is the combined effect of the longterm and short-term factors.Long-term factors include secular stagnation and disinflation,and the short-term factors are mainly related to risk aversion caused by macro-policy change and exogenous shocks.