不一样的贸易赤字:新加坡国际收支的演变及其启示

A Different Trade Deficit:The Evolution of Singapore's Balance of Payments and Its Implications

20世纪80年代,拉美国家陷入债务危机,一些亚洲国家也受到影响。其中,新加坡表现出了更强的经常项目长期逆差承受能力和抗风险能力。新加坡之所以能够避免债务危机的冲击,主要是因为受益于出口导向型的工业化发展模式、鼓励外商直接投资的政策和其他经济政策的长期宏观目标的一致性。新加坡国际收支结构演变的经验,对于理解今天中国的高杠杆问题也有着重要的启示,即债务用途和债务结构比债务规模更为重要,当然,最终杠杆率还是要趋于收敛。

In the 1980 s,Latin American countries sank in a debt crisis and some Asian countries were also affected.Among them,Singapore demonstrated relatively strong long-term current account deficit tolerance and anti-risk ability.It is mainly due to the fact that the export-oriented industrial development models and the policies encouraging foreign direct investment are well in line with the long-term macro-objectives of other economic policies that Singapore has been able to avoid the impact of the debt crisis.The evolution in the structure of Singapore's balance of payments also has important implications for understanding China's current high leverage.In other words,debt use and structure are more important than the scale of debt.Of course,the ultimate leverage ratio still tends to converge.