美国货币政策调整对世界经济影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Adjustment of American Monetary Policy on the World Economy

本文以全球金融危机爆发为界限,分别选择美国联邦基金利率、存款机构在联储银行的准备金余额作为美联储常规货币政策和量化宽松货币政策的表征指标,采用VAR模型实证研究了美国货币政策调整前后,相关政策变量的冲击对全球主要国家以及中国经济变量的影响。本文主要分析了美国货币政策调整对其国内的影响、对发达经济体的影响,以及对新兴市场和发展中经济体的影响,考察了美国货币政策传导机制的基本特征、影响路径以及对世界经济增长的影响,结合实证研究明确了在大国博弈环境下美国货币政策调整带来的多视角多层面冲击。本文认为中国需要在经济发展方式、对外经贸战略等方面进行战略性调整。本研究的创新点主要有以下两点:第一,大多数相关文献主要研究美国货币政策对一个或少数几个国家和地区(如金砖五国)的溢出效应,较少拓展至多个国家和地区;第二,本研究对美国货币政策调整的内涵进行了拓展,使其能够进行量化和对比分析。

This study applies the model of VAR to do empirical research on the overflow effect on global economy by the adjustments of American monetary policy.The research mainly contains the effects of the adjustments of American monetary policy on the United States,developed economies,emerging markets and developing economies.Then the Study studies the essential features and influence paths of conduction mechanism of monetary policy of the United States and the influence on global economic gains.With the combination of empirical research,the Study clarifies the impact of the adjustments of the monetary policy of the United States in the atmosphere of superpower games in multiple views and dimensions.Besides,the study chooses comparatively more comprehensive data of China to deliver an empirical test of the overflow effect on China’s economy by the adjustments of America’s monetary policy.The innovation of this research mainly has the following two points:first,most of the relevant literature mainly studies the spillover effect of the US monetary policy to one or a few countries and regions(such as the BRICs),and less to expand at most.Second,the study of the United States monetary policy adjustment of the connotation of development,so that it can be quantified and compared.