基于能-水资源约束的晋陕蒙地区产业结构优化研究

Research on the Optimization of Regional Industrial Structure in Shanxi Province, Shaanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on the Constraint of Energy-Water Resources Utilization

本文采用投入产出和线性规划模型,模拟了节能、节水和节能节水双重约束三种情景下晋陕蒙地区产业持续发展和资源高效利用的优化效果。结果表明:(1)节能情景下,能源和水资源的综合节约量最大;(2)节水情景下,地区生产总值增加幅度最大,提高了7.89个百分点;(3)节能节水双重约束情景下,能源和水资源节约量与地区生产总值增加幅度均最小。综合对比三种情景,各省区采矿业和制造业在原有产业体系中的发展水平和能源消耗水平的差异,决定了产业结构的实际优化效果。基于能源消耗约束,通过提高采矿业比重,微降制造业和商业服务业比重,可以在保障地区经济增长的同时,有效降低能源和水资源的消耗总量。基于水资源消耗约束,适当降低农业的发展规模有助于地区经济发展节约水资源。基于能-水资源双重约束,对采矿业结构调整的方向差异,会导致单位能源资源产出利用效果的明显差异。

With input-output model and linear programming model,this paper tries to explore the optimized path of industry development and resources utilization efficiency in Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region under three scenarios(energy saving scenario,water saving scenario and dual constraints of energy-water scenario).The results show that:(1)By comparison,under the circumstance of energy saving,the amount of resource saving is the largest,which can realize the saving of energy and water resources.(2)Under the scenario of water-saving,the regional GDP increases by the largest margin,which amounts to 7.89 percentage points.(3)Under the dual constraint of energy and water saving,the amount of resource saving is the least,and the regional GDP increases slightly.The results imply that the actual optimized effects are determined by the difference of industrial development level and energy consumption ratio of mining and manufacture in each province.Proportion increasement of mining industry and slight decreasement of manufacture can make regional economic growth and reduce energy and water consumption effectively under the energy saving constraint.Appropriately reducing the scale of agriculture development is conductive to the decreasement of water consumption per unit of GDP under the water saving constraint.The difference in the direction of the structural adjustment of mining industry will lead to different utilization effect of the output per unit of energy resources under the dual constraints of energy-water consumption.