政府专项债券发行对中长期信贷挤出效应的研究——以陕西省为例

A Study on the Crowding-out Effect of Government Special Bond Issuance on Medium and Long Term Credit:Take Shaanxi Province as an Example

自从2015年政府专项债券在我国首次发行以来,每年发行规模由2015年的1 000亿元上升到2018年的1.35万亿元,增长迅速。随着财政预算管理制度的日趋完善和专项债券发行存量的增长,地方政府原有的融资模式正在迅速发生改变,政府隐形债务清理工作持续推进,地方融资平台企业加速转型。这不可避免地会影响到银行业在城市建设和项目开发过程中的中长期贷款业务的开展,国家开发银行作为开发性金融的先行者,其项目选择具有中长期、额度大、批发性等特点,因此其业务发展受到专项债券发行的影响无疑更大。本文在梳理政府专项债券发行的历史背景和发行现状的基础上,通过对陕西省政府专项债券发行和银行业在基础设施领域的新增信贷的相关数据的分析,同时运用灰色关联方法,实证研究了政府专项债券的发行对银行在基础设施领域的新增信贷的挤出效应,并针对国家开发银行的业务发展提出了相应的政策建议。

Since the first issue of government special bonds in China in 2015,the annual issuance scale has risen from 100 billion yuan in 2015 to 1.35 trillion yuan in 2018,with a rapid growth.With the improvement of financial budget management system and the growth of special bond issuance stock,the original financing mode of local government is changing rapidly,the government’s invisible debt clearance work continues to advance,and the local financing platform enterprises accelerate the transformation.This will inevitably affect the bank in the process of urban construction and development of medium and long-term loan business.As the pioneer of development finance,China Development Bank’s project selection has the characteristics of medium and long-term,large quota,wholesale,so its business development is undoubtedly more affected by the issuance of special bonds.On the basis of combing the historical background and relevant characteristics of the issuance of government special bonds,this paper empirically studies the crowding-out effect of the issuance of government special bonds on the new credit of banks in the field of infrastructure by analyzing the relevant data of the issuance of government special bonds in Shaanxi Province and the new credit of banks in the field of infrastructure with the grey correlation method,and makes some corresponding policy recommendations for China Development Bank.