1991年美苏核裁军评析

THE US-SOVIET NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT IN 1991:A REVIEW

1991年美苏核裁军取得较大进展,双方签订了《削减战略武器条约》,并宣布了单方面裁减战术核武器的计划. 条约与SALTⅠ和SALTⅡ相比,无疑是一个进步.它限制分导式多弹头的发展,并规定现场视察等一些具体措施,有利于双方加强信任和进一步核裁军.但该条约本身具有严重缺陷,落后于当前美苏缓和的形势,虽具有一定的政治影响,但军事意义小,基本上保持了美苏原来的军事格局和核威慑战略. 双方单方面核裁军计划是裁军领域的一个重要进展,有利于世界局势的稳定与缓和,但裁减的主要是战术核武器,很少涉及庞大的战略核武库的进一步削减问题. 实现核裁军的关键在于美苏完全放弃扩展的威慑战略.

Considerable progress has been made in the US-Soviet disarmament negotiations in 1991. The two sides signed the START treaty and announced their intention of unilateral reduction in tactical nuclear weapons. Compared with the SALT I and SALT II treaties, the START treaty is undoubtedly a step forward. It limits the development of MIRV-ing and stipulates some specific measures for on-site inspection, which is conclusive to enhancing mutual trust and promoting further nuclear disarmament. However, the treaty has some serious defects and has been overtaken by the events in the US-Soviet relations. With measured political implication but lesser military significance, the treaty would enable the two countries to maintain,by and large, their force structure and nuclear deterrence strategy.The US and Soviet plan for unilateral nuclear disarmament are significant Progress in the course of disarmament and are conclusive to stability and relaxation of tensions in the world. The actual reduction, however, refers mainly to tactical nuclear weapons and barely to their huge strategic nuclear arsenals.The key to nuclear disarmament lies in the willingness of the US and the Soviet Union to completely abandon their extended nuclear deterrence strategy.