京津冀经济圈城镇化影响因素实证研究及对策分析

Empirical Study and Countermeasure Analysis on Influencing Factors of Urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Circle

本文采用2011～2016年中国京津冀经济圈的面板数据,利用固定效应模型测算京津冀经济圈城镇化的影响因素并对其进行分析,以期为京津冀经济圈城镇化建设提出针对性建议。实证结果表明:京津冀经济圈城镇化影响因素中第三产业产值比重、城镇单位就业人员平均工资、医院床位数以及地方财政教育支出对京津冀经济圈城镇化发展产生一定影响,而客运量、货运量、中小学数量、城市污水日处理能力、社会保障和就业支出以及生活垃圾无害化处理率等指标对京津冀经济圈城镇化发展没有形成显著作用,因此可以通过调整产业结构、加强医疗协同发展和教育协同推进来加快京津冀经济圈城镇化发展。

Based on panel data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle from 2011 to 2016, this paper calculates and analyses the influencing factors of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle by using fixed effect model, with a view to putting forward pertinent suggestions for urbanization construction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle. The empirical results show that the proportion of tertiary industry output value, average wages of urban employees, number of hospital beds and local financial and educational expenditure have a certain impact on the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle, while passenger traffic, freight volume, number of primary and secondary schools,daily disposal capacity of urban sewage, social security and employment expenditure and living waste. The harmless disposal rate of waste has no significant effect on the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle.Therefore, the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle can be accelerated by adjusting the industrial structure, strengthening the coordinated development of medical treatment and education.