基于组合权重法的气候变化对国家脆弱性的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on National Vulnerability Based on Combined Weight Method

国家脆弱性是评价一个国家可持续发展的重要指标,随着全球环境的变化,以及环境对国家安全的影响,环境作为一个重要影响因素,对于一个国家的稳定性评价应该得到应有的重视。本文通过筛选凝聚力、政治、经济、社会、环境5个子系统的16个指标,利用层次分析法和熵值法组合权重,构建国家脆弱性的评价模型,选取阿富汗作为研究对象,通过构建的评价模型,得到了2006~2017年国家脆弱度指数,分析了气候变化对国家脆弱性的影响,为相关国家干预策略提供了政策启示。

National vulnerability is an important index to evaluate the sustainable development of the country.Firstly,through selecting 16 indicators of cohesion,politics,economy,society and environment subsystems,this paper constructs an evaluation model of national vulnerability by combining weights with analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method.Then,Afghanistan is selected as the research object.Through the evaluation model,the national vulnerability of 2006~2017 is obtained.Finally,the impact of climate change on national vulnerability is analyzed to provide policy inspiration for relevant national intervention strategies.