基于时间序列分析南京市二手房的定价模型

The Pricing Model of Second-hand Houses in Nanjing City Based on Time Series Analysis

由于房地产普遍具有较强的异质性、不易流动性、不可分割性等特征,致使对二手房资产的定价研究难度较大。时间序列分析是处理动态问题的一种重要的数学工具,而二手房的价格波动显然与时间相关,本人利用从搜房网上搜集的南京地区的2013年2月-2015年2月的二手房房价数据,利用时间序列分析作为工具建立了二手房价格预测的随机性模型;并把预测的价格和实际价格作了对比分析,研究发现两者的误差较小,对二手房交易的买卖双方能够提供一些合理的参考价值。

As a result of real estate generally has a strong heterogeneity, is not easy to mobility, non segmentation and other features, resulting in the price of second-hand housing assets is difficult to study. Time series analysis is to deal with dynamic problems an important mathematical tool, and fluctuations in the price of second-hand housing obviously and time related, I use from Soufangwang collected in Nanjing area in February 2013 2015 February second-hand housing prices data, using time series analysis as a tool to establish the second-hand housing prices to predict the random model; and at the analysis and comparison of the predicted and actual price, the study found that a smaller error of both, to second-hand housing transactions, the seller and the buyer can provide some reference value.