政府干预下技术风险传播机制与控制决策——基于系统动力学的数理论证与实证仿真

Mechanism of Technology Risk Transmission and Control Decisionmaking Under Government Intervention: Mathematical Demonstration and Empirical Simulation Based on System Dynamics

当前我国快速发展的现代技术为推动社会进步作出了巨大贡献,但可能存在的技术不足也带来一定的社会风险,并随着企业间技术和产品的输入输出而不断转移,使影响范围越来越大,所以政府就有必要进行干预。将复杂网络上的传染病模型引用到技术风险传播中,构建政府干预下技术风险传播SEIR模型。首先通过数理论证研究模型的平衡点和稳定性,初步得出政府对于技术风险传播的干预机制,然后调查云南省50家科技类企业,并结合系统动力学原理构建STELLA实证仿真模型,分析政府干预对技术风险传播的影响,给出政府风险管控的最优策略。

The rapid development of modern technology in our country has made great contributions to the promotion of social progress, but the possible lack of technology has also brought about certain social risks, and has been continuously transferred with the input and output of technology and products between enterprises, the scope of influence is increasing, so the government needs to intervene. In this paper, the infectious disease model on complex network is introduced into the technology risk communication, and the SEIR model of technology risk communication under government intervention is constructed. First, the equilibrium and stability of the model are studied by mathematical demonstration, and the government intervention mechanism for technology risk transmission is preliminarily obtained;then, 50 science and technology enterprises in Yunnan province are investigated, and the STELLA empirical simulation model is constructed based on the principle of system dynamics to analyze the influence of government intervention on the spread of technological risk, and gives the optimal strategy of government risk control.