基于灰色马尔科夫模型在江西省人口预测中的应用

Population Prediction in Jiangxi Province Based on Grey Markov Model

人口数量是衡量一个地区发展的重要指标,考察一个地区的人口规模及其走势有益于政府制定相关政策规划和管理人群。本文以江西省2000—2013年的人口数量为基础,建设性地将灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型与马尔科夫链结合,构建了灰色马尔科夫预测模型,对江西省未来5年的人口数量做出了准确的预测。结果显示,江西省未来5年人口数量有下降的趋势。

Population is an important index to measure the development of a region. To study the size and trend of population is beneficial for establishing related policies. Based on the population in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2013, this paper combines the gray system GM(1,1) model with the Markov chain to predict the population in Jiangxi Province of the next five years. The result shows the population would decline in the next five years.