技术创新与产业结构转型的地区经济增长效应——基于动态空间杜宾模型的实证分析

Economic Growth Effect of Technological Innovation and Industrial Structure Transformation ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

选取2006-2016年中国内地30个省(市、区)数据,构建动态空间杜宾模型并结合中介效应模型,研究技术创新影响经济增长的直接效应,以及产业结构转型对经济增长的间接效应。研究结果发现:我国经济增长存在正向空间溢出效应;经济增长具有动态、积极的正向连续性特征。在直接效应方面,本地区技术创新对经济增长呈显著正向影响,而周边地区技术创新呈显著负向影响;产业结构合理化对经济增长呈显著负向影响,产业结构高级化呈显著正向影响;技术创新与产业结构转型融合缓解了产业结构合理化对经济增长的抑制程度,提升了产业结构高级化对经济的促进效果。在间接效应方面,产业结构转型是技术创新与经济增长的中间传导环节,产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化均为正向中介效应。本地区技术创新对经济增长的直接效应大于间接效应,周边技术创新对经济增长的直接效应小于间接效应。

In this paper, the data of 30 provinces(municipalities and districts) in China from 2006 to 2016 are selected to construct the dynamic spatial Doberbin model and the intermediary effect model. This paper studies the direct effect of technological innovation on economic growth and its indirect effect on economic growth by promoting the transformation of industrial structure. The research results show that: there are positive spatial spillover effects in China’s economic growth, and the process of economic growth has dynamic and positive continuous characteristics. In the direct effects, the technological innovation in this region has positive effects on economic growth, but the technological innovation in the surrounding areas has a significant negative impact. The rationalization of industrial structure has a significant negative impact on the economic growth, but the advanced industrial structure has a significant positive impact. The combination of technological innovation and industrial structural transformation alleviates the degree of inhibition of the rationalization of industrial structure to economic growth. In the indirect effect, the transformation of industrial structure is the intermediate transmission link between technological innovation and economic growth, and the rationalization of industrial structure and the advanced industrial structure both have positive intermediary effects. The direct effect of technological innovation in this region on the economic growth is greater than the indirect effect, but the direct effect of peripheral technological innovation on economic growth is smaller than indirect effect.