基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

Analysis of the Major Parameters in Solar Active Regions Based on PCA Method

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系,对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立.本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)方法对1997—2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析,选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度.结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱),与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高,表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.

Solar active region has close relationship with solar flares and solar proton events.In order to better understand the complicated relations between them as well as to build a concrete foundation for the forecasting of solar flares and solar proton events,the Principal Component Analysis(PCA) method is adopted to analyze the main parameters of solar active regions during 2007-2010.The parameters selected include sunspot magnetic classification,Mcintosh classification,sunspot group area,10.7 cm radio flux,flare index,the position of proton flares and soft X-ray flare intensity.A total of 81 principal component scores are obtained and compared with the solar proton event peak flow and annual average sunspot,10.7 cm radio flux annual average,and it is found that the similarity is very high.The statistic results show that the principal component scores can represent the strength of solar activity to some extent.