产业升级条件下的收入分配倒“U”曲线的变异

Variations of the Income Distribution Inverted-U Curve Under the Condition of Industrial Upgrading

1955年,Kuznets提出了著名的收入分配倒"U"假说,后来Robinson对该假说作了证明。但Robinson的论证是基于二元经济结构的,没有考虑到产业升级引起的产业结构变化及对收入分配造成的影响。为能更准确地理解收入分配与经济发展的关系,本文在二元经济分析框架中加入产业升级的因素,建立了三部门的收入分配模型。研究表明,产业升级在一定条件下会导致收入分配倒"U"曲线转折点出现的时间延后以及收入分配不公平的加剧;在产业升级滞后的转型经济体中,甚至会出现收入分配曲线在下降区间转而上升的现象。这对认识和解决目前我国面临的收入分配问题有一定的指导意义。

In 1955,Kuznets proposed the famous Kuznets Curve. Afterwards Robinson demonstrated the existence of in-verted-U Curve. But Robinson's argument is based on the dual economy model,without taking into account the industrialupgrading. In order to understand the relationship between income distribution and economic growth more accurately,wemust add the factor of industrial upgrading to the model. In this paper,we establish the three-sector model of income dis-tribution by adding the factor of industrial upgrading. It comes to the following results:under certain conditions,industrialupgrading will lead to increasing inequality,and it will take longer for the income distribution to start becoming more equal;If industrial upgrading happens in the later phases of industrialization,we are surprised to find that there may be even a re-versal of the income distribution curve in the period of decreasing inequality. It is useful to help us solve the problem of in-come distribution in China.