煤炭型城市旅游业与碳安全协调发展研究

Coordinated Development of Tourism and Carbon Safety in Coal-oriented City

首先对旅游业与碳安全协调发展机理进行了分析,然后构建了协调发展评价指标体系,运用协调发展度评价模型对2001-2014年我国重要的煤炭城市——平顶山市的旅游业与碳安全协调发展度进行定量分析,用障碍度模型识别出影响协调发展的主要障碍因子,最后用GM(1,1)模型对2015-2020年的协调发展度进行预测。结果表明:12001-2009年,碳安全综合指数高于旅游业综合发展指数,2010-2014年,旅游业综合发展指数高于碳安全综合指数;22001-2005年,旅游-碳安全系统处于失调发展状态,2006-2014年,基本上处于初级协调状态;3在2001-2011年,旅游总收入、入境旅游收入、国内旅游总人次是主要障碍因子,2012-2014年,工业、农业生产过程的碳排放和园地碳吸收是主要障碍因子;42015-2020年,旅游业和碳安全协调发展度的预测值位于0.6075~0.7825之间,前4年为中级协调,后2年为初级协调。

Based on the coordinated development mechanism for coordinated development betweem tourism and carbon safety,this paper constructed the index system of coordinated development betweem tourism and carbon safety. By using coordinated development model,this paper quantitatively analyzed coordinated development degree betweem tourism and carbon safety of Pingdingshan city during 2001-2014. An obstacle degree model was employed to identify the main obstacle factors,and then GM( 1,1)model was used to predict the coordinated development degree from 2015 to 2020. The results indicated that:( 1) The comprehensive evaluation index of carbon safety was higher than that of tourism industry during 2001-2009,while the comprehensive evaluation index of tourism system was higher than that of carbon safety system during 2010-2014;( 2) During 2001-2005,the tourism-carbon safety system was in a maladjustment state,while it was mainly in the primary coordination state during 2006-2014;( 3)The total income of tourism,inbound tourism income and the total number of domestic tourism were the main obstacle factors during 2001-2011,while carbon emissions from the industrial and agricultural production process and carbon sequestration from the garden were the main obstacle factors during 2012-2014;( 4) It was forecasted that the coordinated development degree between tourism and carbon safety from 2015 to 2020 lay in 0. 6075 ~ 0. 7825,and the combined tourism-carbon system belonged to the intermediate coordination condition in the period of 2015-2018,and belonged to the initial coordination condition in 2019 and 2020.